The blog

How the market actually works

The order book, the spread, depth, funding rates and what moves a price when nothing has happened. Written for people who already trade.

Markets · 10 min read

Perpetuals or dated futures: the same exposure, two different bills

A trader who wants leveraged exposure to an asset usually has two instruments available and treats the choice as a matter of what the interface shows first. It is not a cosmetic difference. The two contracts distribute their costs along completely different timelines, and the one that is cheaper depends almost entirely on how long you intend to hold.

Markets · 9 min read

What a market maker actually sells, and why the spread widens when you need it

Every time an order executes immediately, somebody had already placed the order it executed against. That somebody is usually not expressing a view on the price, and understanding what they are doing instead explains a long list of things that otherwise look arbitrary, starting with why the market gets more expensive precisely when it gets interesting.

Markets · 10 min read

The basis trade: what carry actually pays, and what it costs

The oldest trade in derivatives markets exists in crypto too, and it is frequently presented as a way to earn a return without taking a view. The first half is accurate. The second describes the direction risk it removes and not the several others it introduces, which are the ones that have actually cost people money.

Markets · 9 min read

What crypto is actually correlated with, and why it keeps changing

The question of what crypto moves with has two confident answers that contradict each other, and both are supported by real data from real periods. That is not a sign that one side is wrong. It is a sign that the relationship is not stable, and knowing that changes how a portfolio should be built.

Markets · 9 min read

Spot ETFs: what actually changed, and what did not

The arrival of regulated funds holding the asset directly was described as a turning point, and it was one for a narrower set of reasons than the coverage suggested. What changed is who can buy, which is genuinely important. What did not change is longer and is the part worth understanding.

Markets · 10 min read

Six crypto metrics that do not measure what you think

Every ranking site presents the same handful of numbers, and each of them is a calculation rather than an observation. That would be fine if the calculations were stated, but they are not, and the gap between what the number is called and what it contains is where most confident wrong conclusions come from.

Markets · 9 min read

Indices and baskets: what the weighting decides for you

A basket presents itself as a way to hold a market rather than a bet. But somebody decided what goes in, how much of each, and when that changes, and those three decisions do more to determine the outcome than anything happening in the market itself.

Markets · 10 min read

Seasonality and calendar effects: why they keep appearing and keep failing

Somebody publishes a chart every year showing that a particular month, day or hour behaves differently, and the chart is accurate about the past. Almost none of these survive contact with the future, and the reason is a statistical mechanism that produces convincing patterns from data containing nothing at all.

Markets · 9 min read

Measuring sentiment honestly: what money says and surveys do not

Every sentiment indicator answers the question of how participants feel, and the useful ones answer a different question: what have participants actually done. The gap between those two is the whole subject, and it explains why the indicators people quote are the ones with the least information in them.

Markets · 9 min read

Sessions: a market open all the time still breathes

The absence of an opening bell is described as the market never sleeping. What actually happens is that participation follows the working hours of three regions, and the hours when all three are asleep produce a book that behaves differently in ways that cost money if you have not noticed.

Markets · 10 min read

Why crypto volatility is different, and what it does to position size

Everybody knows crypto is volatile, and almost nobody has changed their position sizing to account for the specific ways in which it is. The excess is not random and it is not sentiment. It comes from four features of how these markets are built, and each of them has a consequence you can act on.

Markets · 9 min read

The funding rate on perpetual futures, and who actually pays it

It is the line traders notice last and complain about most. It is not a fee, it is not charged by the venue, and on a position held for weeks it can cost more than every trading fee you paid to open and close it.

Markets · 9 min read

How to read an order book, and what it will never tell you

A book is the most honest object on an exchange: every line is an order somebody has actually committed to. It is also the most over-interpreted, because a commitment can be withdrawn in a millisecond and most of them are.